We’re holed up at Phillips Middle School waiting for the CHCCS presentation on enrollment and demographic trends, which the News & Observer reported on earlier this week.
There’s a live stream if you’d like to tune in from home. The presentation will be given by our superintendent, Dr. Rodney Trice.
We’re kicking things off. Dr. Trice says “we are becoming a smaller district…and it does require us to reimagine who we are.”
He’s warning us about a lot of charts – which are likely the same charts presented earlier this fall to the Board of County Commissioners.
How schools are funded in the state of North Carolina is changing. At the local level, we are experiencing declining student enrollment. And then there’s the layer of federal funding which is changing. “Our reality is shifting.”
This presentation is not all doom and gloom, he notes.
Last year, Nathan Dollar from Carolina Demography was invited to the CHCCS board retreat. (Ed note: A blogblogger used to work at Carolina Demography!)
Dollar:
- Loss of students after pandemic
- K saw 28% decline in average daily membership (ADM)
- Fertility is declining in CH/C
- The number of school age children has been decreasing in CH/C
- 61% increase in home school enrollment in Orange County between 2018 and 2021. (Some went to charters as well.) 21% increase in private between 21-24.
- ~50% of students moved out of district (out migration) + students going elsewhere.
Trice:
- 5-17 – aren’t as many students in our district
- in NC school districts are funded by enrollment.
- ADM has been decreasing steadily in CH/C schools since 2020
- NC schools are funded based on the previous year’s enrollment.
- ~289 student decrease = -2.1 million decline in funding. (estimate)
- Lot of ways our school district can respond to this. (Related: Our piece last year on staff cuts.)
Trice:
Where did the students go?
– All local districts (Chatham, Durham, Wake, Alamance) saw increase in enrollment of private schools
– Since 2019, NC has seen an 11% increase (15,605) increase in homeschooling students.
– 71% of students exiting schools do so because they’ve moved out of state/country or they’re going to another public school in NC
– 15.7% of students exiting are going to private school
– 7.4% of students exiting are going to charter schools
– 3.0% of students exiting are going to home school.
Trice notes that this happens every year. It would not fully explain outflow from district.
Trice says they plan to do exit interviews with families that are exiting to make different school choices to help the school district.
Are the students even here anymore?
- Declining K enrollment is one explanation for drop. Down in 2025-26 by 27.6% (238) students from high point in 2016-17 (864).
- A cohort view of enrollment shows that cohort survival rate (how many K’s make it through to 9th grade) doesn’t have very much drop off. But the trend is that there’s declining student enrollment from K-8. High schools are pretty stable.
- We’re graduating more students than we’re bringing in, in kindergarten.
- Fewer babies are being born in Chapel Hill and Carrboro. (We’ve written about this.) This will impact future enrollment.
- Greatest declines are in K and 1. So this trend may continue – and how do we prepare for that?
Local demographics
Census data (2010, 2020) shows that Orange County grew by 11%, but at a slower rate than Alamance, Chatham, Durham, Wake. For that growth, 65+ drove the growth (73% of folks moving in to Orange County are 65+, highest compared to local counties – Wake is only 29% – and 21% more than state average.)
– 11% decrease in population under 5 between 2010 and 2020.
The State Funding in Arrears Model
– All NC public schools operate under funding in arrears model
– Districts are funded based on best one of two ADM from prior fiscal year
– It’s time to reposition our district to become a smaller district because birth rate shows that we won’t grow. We could also shift housing patterns in the future. But all of the information we have right now suggests we will become a smaller district.
Looking ahead
Trice ends presentation by saying it’s not all doom and gloom. We can think deeply about programming differently. If we have declining enrollment, how do we think about benefits, pay, facilities?
Trice suggests that districts around NC will need to think about this to pivot the district to thrive.
Time for Q&A.
Andy Jenks is manning the mic and will be passing it around.
Q: How does local funding work?
A: That’s a per pupil amount. We’re looking at 8,000. Our challenge will be to fill the state funding gap.
Q: Appreciate approach. How do you plan to engage community to think about priorities?
A: Starts today with what the data is. There’s a QR code where you can answer “What do you envision over next 10 years?” There will be short-term decisions and long-term decisions around funding. Process will be attuned to answer that question.
Q: Back when the bond was considered, there was a demographic study that was suggested that would play into redistricting. Was that this?
A: County commissioners have contracted with Carolina Demography to deliver report about both school districts. That’s due in late Jan-Feb. Will be better projections. Carolina Demography will be at board retreat.
2nd Q: Are we reevaluating the bond and closing schools?
A: Don’t anticipate that the bond plan will be reconsidered. We need newer schools. (Also ed note: Funding source is different! Bond money has to go towards facilities – we have blogblogged on this.)
3rd Q: Is this a NC problem? Or a national problem?
A: Dr. Dollar mentioned this is not a NC thing, this is a global thing in terms of birth rates. But there’s also nuance – you have to look at a community. Chatham, Wake, and Durham are growing.
Q: When we’re looking at enrollment #’s, is that like, Day 1 enrollment? Last day of school? When do they pull that number?
A: It’s from the prinicpal monthly report.
Q: Do you know the cost of running 1 elementary school? If we went from 11 to 10, what number are we looking?
A: The board asked us to look at fixed costs – number was around 1.7 million.
Q: Comment – What is the role of the school within community? Are there other needs?
Q: Of 7500/kid that we’re losing, what are we losing? How is that budgeted?
A: Transportation, curriculum resources, could be any number of things that it impacts. We are often asked if that means teachers? We plan to look at non-personnel first, whether that’s instructional technology or something else. Kind of early for that, but that’s a question that often comes up. Interested in preserving jobs and employment.
Q: (This is a question that I don’t quite understand but it’s from Keri Hamel, who frequently weighs in on budget items.)
A: The Board needs to have that conversation in terms of facilities, campuses. We’ve not been directed to study consolidation or closures.
Q: Happy to hear you’re interested in protecting teachers and enrichment programs. Thinking about reinvisioning as smaller school district – are there case studies to look at?
A: We are members of the Innovation Project, statewide education thinktank that is looking at bits and pieces for us. Talks a little about Denver and other models. There are other partners we can bring to table to come up with something that works for us.
(Ed note: The person behind me is wearing an ‘I voted’ sticker. Props to maintaining the sticker.)
A (continued): What doesn’t work is doing the same thing. That typically doesn’t work.
Q: Capacity at different schools – what that breakdown looks like when cap comes off.
A: May be bit early to say what it looks like. Cap creates challenge in making sure schools are operating at full capacity. We can’t point fingers at school or surrounding community. We haven’t done redistricting in a very long time. Typically school districts redistrict to prevent lower capacity – we’ll have to do it as we bring online new schools.
Q 2nd: Are we focusing on elementary?
A: Yeah, that’s a good way to look at it. Elementary will become high school and that may change the way our high schools look.
Q: You talked about longer term over 10 years. What’s timeline for next year and solving that problem?
A: We have to do both at the same time. We need to solve budget deficit immediately but I’m asking for a deeper pivot.
(All typos and parapharses are from your blogbloggers who are trying to type very quickly!!)
Q: How will you have the resolve to move forward with community resistance?
A: I don’t know if I have a great answer other than spaces like this are important. We will look at characteristics of schools if that comes up. Which are most expensive? Which are oldest?
Q: What is the town doing to partner with you to stop the bleeding? A lot of this goes back to housing. We can adjust to this decrease but when I see that huge number, does the town also want to grow the family population and how are they partnering with you?
A: Both towns have been great thought partners. There are commitments to affordable housing. Much of where we are now, the decisions were made 15 years ago about condos and apartment buildings. We don’t have a lot of land to build additional housing. I’m not sure how much can be done. Hopefully affordable housing is a driver for some young families with children – but that won’t be 2000 students. It would be great if it were.
Q: We have seen a huge amount of growth in Chapel Hill about whether it’s appropriate, but it does seem to have failed us in a way. It’s bringing in more tax dollars – but it doesn’t seem to have been a successful strategy in terms of making Chapel Hill a more family friendly place to be. I think it would be interesting about how the urban planning has been done and the negative consequences and to document that for other communities.
Q: I’m going back to housing. (Doesn’t want housing to be torn down.)
Q: A few more questions about K and also focusing on selling schools and programs.
Last Q: Wants to phase out Chromebooks and iPads.