Chris Cooper couldn’t have dropped his new book, Anatomy of a Purple State: A North Carolina Politics Primer, at a more perfect time. As he writes, “North Carolina represents a perfect distillation of the promise and peril of modern American democracy: hyperpartisanship, gerrymandering, dissatisfaction with the two-party system, the urban-rural divide—these issues are all brought into sharp relief in the Tar Heel State.”
Cooper has been following all of that closely for decades – he’s a Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs at Western Carolina University, and he’s written about the machinations of our state in The Assembly, The Old North State Politics blog, and the Washington Post, among others.
His new book details what makes NC the ‘most purple of purple states,’ as he termed it. I interviewed Cooper about the effects of gerrymandering, UNC system governance, and what the key local and state-level races are this year.
You start your introduction with the 1 to 10 ‘fubar meter’ in the press room of the North Carolina State Legislative Building. In your opinion, where are we right now?
We’ve entered a Spinal Tap situation–we can’t be limited to 10.
The fubar meter itself is an interesting thing–it started as a way for the press to signify how…well…fubar things are, but politicians soon began to use it, too. In September, 2023, Speaker of the House Tim Moore descended a series steps and made his way past the women’s restroom into the bowels of the General Assembly to the press room. He then grabbed a stick and moved the Fubar Meter to 10 because the General Assembly was considering a budget which would give legislators almost complete control over deciding what is and what is not public record. I think that’s what people refer to as “meta.”
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What issues make North Carolina purple this year?
The current conditions are a perfect petri dish for purple politics. Each day as new people register to vote, they are registering not as Democrats or Republicans, but rather as Unaffiliated. Even if these folks may lean left or right, they’re putting themselves in a position to pivot as conditions change. The demographics in our state also reinforce the purple nature of our politics. We are the destination for many in-migrants and the state is growing. But these in-migrants are not as blue as they are in many other states. In-migration, therefore, is reinforcing our purple politics. Even the urban rural divide, which is stark in North Carolina, reinforces purple. Urban centers are getting increasingly blue and rural outposts increasingly red. And, unlike in many other states, rural people still have political power in North Carolina.
You write that “Raleigh, not Washington, is home to the people who manipulate the key levers” of North Carolina. Which local and state races are the most critical this year? Are there any that don’t get talked about enough?
Is it too glib to say that (outside of coverage in the Triangle Blog Blog), all of them don’t get talked about enough?
One of the ones I’d highlight is our superintendent of public instruction election. Because of the vast attention surrounding our Presidential and gubernatorial elections, it’s just not getting a lot of attention, but there’s nothing more than matters for the future of our state than this position. To illustrate the lack of attention, I attended the Trump rally in Asheville. The Republican candidate, Michele Morrow, was walking down the street with a bullhorn. Voters barely took notice and, perhaps more importantly, no media were asking her questions. I get it–the headlines and the eyeballs are at the top of the ticket. But this one matters.
We’ve also got a handful of General Assembly seats that will determine whether the Governor’s veto means anything. Most of the attention seems to be on Tricia Cotham’s R seat just outside of Charlotte, but there are many more than that that should matter.
Lindsey Prather (D) is attempting to defend her seat after being redistricted into a much more challenging district. Then there’s Erin Pare’s ® district in Wake county that is going to be very tight.There are also about half a dozen districts in the NC Senate that could be up for grabs. Oh, and, of course, the NC State Supreme Court seat where Allison Riggs is trying to defend her spot as one of just two Democrats currently serving. And the court of appeals races. And the other council of state races. And a ton of local races across the state.
In retrospect, maybe my initial sentence wasn’t as glib as I feared.
As a UNC student, it’s clear to me that UNC System governance has shed its purple hue since 2010, in favor of red. Based on the last year, I see no evidence that the pendulum will swing the other way soon. Do you see a path back to purple for education in NC? Where does education show up on the ballot this year?
The most obvious place where education shows up on the ballot is in the aforementioned State Superintendent of Public Instruction Race. That won’t mean anything for higher education governance, but for anyone who cares about education policy in the state (whether they are left or right leaning), this is key.
And, of course, there are the General Assembly seats. The General Assembly passes a host of issues related to higher education, and has primary responsibility for appointing board members throughout the UNC system. Like the current direction of the system? Reward the people who have sponsored higher education related bills that you like with your money and your support. Not real wild about the last few years in higher education? Do the opposite.
The higher education governance ship isn’t going to turn around, or shift dramatically right or left based on one election, but that’s not the same as saying this election doesn’t matter. It does.
North Carolina’s current congressional split (7D and 7R) is the definition of purple. We’re headed into the 2024 elections with new maps that will significantly increase Republican representation. If we’re purple, you would also expect our legislature to be close to 50-50, which it is not. How much of a role will gerrymandering play in this year’s election? What would fair look like? How can we have that?
Call it redistricting or call it gerrymandering–the reality is that the way the maps are drawn matters. And matters a lot. As you noted, our current congressional delegation includes 7 Democrats and 7 Republicans. The new map will yield 10 Republicans, 3 Democrats and one big question mark hovering over NC-1 in the Northeastern corner of the state–that’s the lone toss-up. The General Assembly districts will yield a Republican majority–the only question is how big a majority.
Part of the reason for these disparities, many will note, is because of partisan sorting (the tendency of people to live among like-minded people), and the county-clustering rule that has to be followed in General Assembly redistricting. And, there’s no doubt that those two things do matter. But there’s also no doubt that they do not explain the entirety of this situation. Again–7(D)-7(R) to 10(R)-3(D), 1(Toss-up).
The question is fairness is a good one and one that could make a book on its own. In general, the political scientists, geographers and statisticians have done a better job identifying a gerrymander than identifying fairness. One of the most frequently used methods is to apply statistical simulations to show the likelihood that one could get that partisan outcome based on chance alone. It’s a great tool–but one often used after the maps are made.
Although they’re not perfect, I tend to favor non-partisan redistricting commissions. As I detail in the conclusion of the book, these commissions are not a panacea, but the evidence suggests that, when implemented properly, they do give us more competitive districts, more authentic representation of minorities, and something that hews a little closer to fairness.